'Israeli president trying to form unity govt: They will not need Arab parties nor Orthodox parties'

Oliver Farry is pleased to welcome Tamar Sebok, correspondent for the Israeli daily Yedioth Ahronoth based in France. In an Israeli election marked by political uncertainty, unusually high voter participation and a significant mobilisation of Arab voters, the struggle for power extends far beyond the ballot box. As Sebok explains, the decisive question is not necessarily which party wins the most seats, but which political leader can assemble a viable governing coalition. “You don't know until the coalition is formed who really won,” Sebok observes, capturing the fundamental uncertainty of Israel's parliamentary system. “It's not a question of having the most mandates. It's the question of what kind of acceptance you get from the other parties.” Her analysis illuminates a central paradox of coalition politics: smaller parties can exercise influence disproportionate to their electoral strength when larger parties depend on them to secure a parliamentary majority. As Sebok puts it, “The small parties who are the balance have a lot more power than the big ones. It's a contradiction.” Particularly significant is Sebok's insistence that public declarations excluding cooperation with Arab parties should not necessarily be understood as definitive. Recalling the coalition negotiations of 2021, she argues that the boundaries of political cooperation can shift considerably once electoral campaigning gives way to the practical demands of government formation. “The Arab parties have never been that strong,” she notes, before offering a conclusion that encapsulates both the uncertainty and the possibilities of the political moment: “So everything is open.”