House GOP leaders admit redistricting fell short

House GOP leaders are now openly acknowledging that their mid-decade redistricting push didn't work out as well as they'd hoped.Why it matters: Republicans kicked off the redistricting wars hoping new maps would give them a bigger cushion against the historical headwinds facing the president's party.That advantage is looking a lot smaller than they envisioned.Driving the news: House Majority Whip Tom Emmer (R-Minn.) told Axios that Republicans won't win all 13 seats they'd hoped to gain from new maps."We're not gonna win all 13 of those redistricted seats. That's correct. We're not," Emmer told Axios aboard a plane Thursday between campaign stops in North Carolina and Virginia.Emmer echoed House Republican Conference Chair Lisa McClain (R-Mich.), who told Axios last month that Republicans were unlikely to sweep all 13.Zoom in: Emmer said he'd be "surprised" if Republicans sweep all five newly drawn seats in Texas and "shocked" if they win all four in Florida.But he said Republicans are certain to pick up newly drawn seats in Alabama, Louisiana and Tennessee.At a fundraiser for Rep. Mark Harris (R-N.C.) on Thursday, Emmer told donors that Republicans could also offset losses with pickups in Maine and potentially North Carolina, Ohio, New Mexico and Washington.Even assuming Republicans lose five seats because of redistricting in California and Utah, pickups elsewhere give the party a path to come out ahead, Emmer told donors.State of play: Redistricting still gave Republicans an edge, just smaller than they once thought.The Cook Political Report now projects Republicans will net around four seats from redistricting alone, down from the double-digit gains Republicans once hoped to squeeze from new maps.Democrats' maps in California and Utah — in response to a new Texas map — offset the GOP gains. Some newly drawn Republican pickup opportunities have become more competitive than expected.The bottom line: Democrats need to net just three seats to win the House, and the broader battlefield is moving in their direction.Cook shifted 15 House races toward Democrats last month, while Sabato's Crystal Ball moved 11 races toward Democrats days later.Many of the most competitive races are now in districts President Trump carried in 2024.