Russia and Brazil are strategic partners, but their economic ties tell a different story

Russia and Brazil call each other strategic partners, meet within BRICS and advocate a more multipolar world order. But a new joint study by the Russian International Affairs Council and Brazil's CEBRI has revealed an intriguing paradox: political rapprochement between the two countries is moving significantly faster than their actual economic cooperation. Russia-Brazil trade is growing, but remains heavily concentrated At first glance, trade figures look impressive. Between 2020 and 2024, Brazilian imports of Russian goods rose from approximately $2.7 billion to almost $11 billion. However, two categories — petroleum products and fertilizers — accounted for virtually all of this growth. In 2024, Russia supplied around a quarter of Brazil's total fertilizer imports. Brazil, in turn, primarily sells Russia meat, coffee and other agricultural products. This is where a worrying signal for Moscow emerged in 2026: China overtook Russia as the largest supplier of fertilizers to the Brazilian market. Researchers link this in part to Russia's logistical difficulties. This means that even in a sector where Russia's position appeared almost guaranteed, competition is intensifying.