Falling Oil Output and Strong Tenge Cut Kazakhstan's Budget Revenue

Kazakhstan's national budget is underperforming due to a combination of falling oil output and a stronger-than-anticipated tenge, which has eroded import tax revenues. First Vice-Minister of National Economy Azamat Amrin detailed these shortfalls during the presentation of the 2027-2029 budget project. The Oil Production Gap The primary hit to the treasury comes from a drop in crude oil extraction. While forecasts had projected 100.5 million tonnes for 2026, actual output fell to 96 million tonnes, cited as a consequence of the current geopolitical climate. This volume gap alone cost the budget approximately 200 billion tenge. The impact, however, extends beyond direct state revenue. Amrin noted a ripple effect hitting oil-field service companies and sector employees. He estimated that the overall reduction in production has stripped 1.7 trillion tenge in liquidity from the broader economy, leading to a corresponding decline in tax receipts.