Russia's Kaliningrad Surrounded by NATO – But Who Really Owns the Postwar Map?

In recent years, the space around Kaliningrad has been getting tighter. Poland is building fortifications along the Russian border, Lithuania is restricting transit under the sanctions regime, NATO is strengthening its presence in the Baltic, and Western military officials are now openly discussing how Russia’s forces in the region could be rapidly suppressed in the event of a major war. From Moscow, this looks like the gradual preparation of a blockade. From Warsaw and Vilnius, it is presented as the protection of NATO’s eastern flank. But behind the current dispute lies a much more interesting question: what exactly is Kaliningrad when viewed through the postwar map of Europe? And if the fate of the former Königsberg is to be revisited, where would the process have to stop? Kaliningrad Did Not Appear Out of Nowhere There is one particular feature of today’s discussions about Kaliningrad. When they are viewed separately from their historical context, it can seem as though there is some strange Russian territory that somehow ended up between Poland and Lithuania. In reality, there is nothing unique about the way it came into being.