Why Is Israel So Difficult to Predict? The Political Logic Behind Its Next Move

Events in the Middle East regularly put Israel at the center of the world's media attention. It is portrayed sometimes as the attacking side and sometimes as the defending side; sometimes as a US ally following Washington's lead, and sometimes as a state capable of acting against Washington's position. And almost every time, the same question arises: what will Israel do next? Will it strike Iran? Will it join the American coalition or act independently? What will it do in Gaza? How will it behave in Lebanon? What will its next move be? A huge number of publications are built around attempts to predict Israel's future actions. However, an internal analysis of Israeli politics suggests a paradoxical answer: predicting the actions of Israel's political leadership over the long term is extremely difficult, primarily because the leadership itself rarely thinks in those terms.