Trump's "Swiss Army" tools on Iran: Vance and Rubio

As he tries to hammer out a peace deal with Iran, President Trump has a dovish adviser in Vice President Vance perched on one figurative shoulder — and a hawkish Secretary of State Marco Rubio on the other.Why it matters: The success of the talks — and therefore the health of global oil markets — greatly depends on how well Trump deploys each man to balance competing interests in Iran, Israel and Lebanon."Think of Marco and JD as aspects of the president's personality and policy," a top Trump adviser told Axios. "There's a more pro-Israel aspect of it, and that's Rubio. And there's a more Israel-skeptic aspect. That's JD."Zoom in: Vance and Rubio differed during internal administration deliberations about the landmark June 17 memorandum of understanding between the U.S. and Iran.Vance negotiated the deal with Trump envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, and the vice president thought Trump should sign off on the deal to end the war, reopen the Strait of Hormuz and stabilize the economy ahead of the midterm elections, according to several U.S. sources.Rubio, with CIA Director John Ratcliffe and Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth, was skeptical about the MOU and the chances it could lead to a comprehensive nuclear deal.During his trip to the Gulf area last week, Rubio spoke with his regional counterparts about the need to increase the pressure on Iran, according to a source with knowledge of the talks. But Rubio isn't trying to undermine the Iran deal. He and Witkoff briefed members of Congress on Monday, trying to sell the deal to skeptical lawmakers. "Don't think of them as two sides of the same coin," an administration adviser said of Rubio and Vance. "They're more like the different tools on a Swiss Army knife." And Trump wields the knife.Between the lines: The negotiations are complex because they're trilateral, involving Israel, Iran and Lebanon. They involve three agreements:The MOU signed June 17 between Iran and the U.S.A June 21 agreement Vance struck with Iran in Switzerland concerning Lebanon.A peace framework, shepherded by Rubio, signed Friday by Israel and Lebanon.Friction point: On Rubio's track, the parties worked to block Iran from interfering in Lebanon. But Vance's track gave the Iranians a say in the ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah, which the U.S. classifies as an Iran-backed terrorist group destabilizing Lebanon.The issue was so confusing that both Israeli and Lebanese negotiators last week asked U.S. mediators to clarify which of the tracks represents the administration's policy.A senior U.S. official involved in the talks said Vance and Trump both signed off on Rubio's accord.The fine print: The 14-point June 17 MOU between Iran and the U.S. implies that Israel will withdraw from Lebanon as part of a final deal between the U.S. and Iran.But the Friday deal allows for a more phased withdrawal by Israel — and conditions it on the disarming of Iran's terrorist proxy group, Hezbollah.Hezbollah and its allies in Lebanon we